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Standard Chartered Sets $10 Arbitrum Target as Institutional Chain Revenue Grows
Bank links ARB outlook to Robinhood Chain, tokenization growth and Arbitrum’s expanding fee model
TL;DR
- Standard Chartered initiated coverage of Arbitrum’s ARB token with a $10 end-2030 target, projecting roughly 70-fold upside.
- The bank says external chains built with Arbitrum technology could generate recurring revenue through the Arbitrum Expansion Program.
- Robinhood Chain is the first major example supporting the thesis, while slower tokenization, blockchain competition and weak ARB value accrual remain risks.
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Standard Chartered initiated coverage of Arbitrum’s ARB token on September 15, 2026, with a $10 target for the end of 2030, arguing that the Ethereum layer-2 network could benefit as traditional financial institutions move assets and infrastructure onchain. Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, expects ARB to outperform Bitcoin and Ether over the forecast period as Arbitrum earns revenue from third-party chains using its technology.
Standard Chartered laid out a year-by-year ARB price path extending through the end of the decade rather than issuing only a terminal forecast. The bank’s targets are shown below.
The final target represented about a 70-fold increase from ARB’s prevailing level when Standard Chartered released the forecast.
Standard Chartered also expects stronger percentage gains for ARB than for Bitcoin or Ether through the end of the decade. Its comparative price projections cover both assets through the same forecast period.
Robinhood Chain Strengthens Arbitrum’s Revenue Case
Standard Chartered’s thesis focuses on Arbitrum developing beyond its role as an Ethereum scaling network by supplying technology that banks, brokerages and other traditional financial companies can use to operate their own chains. Through the Arbitrum Expansion Program, or AEP, Arbitrum receives a rolling fee equal to 10% of net protocol revenue generated by external chains using its technology stack.
Kendrick said that revenue model could become increasingly important as digital-asset valuations mature. “We see digital assets transitioning from a state where revenue is not yet relevant to one where revenue is critical – Arbitrum’s business model is heavily focused on revenue, and as such, the ARB token should benefit.”
Robinhood Chain is the first major example supporting that model. Robinhood launched the chain using Arbitrum technology on July 1, 2026, providing Standard Chartered with an early case study for how a traditional financial company deploying an Arbitrum-based network can contribute to the wider ecosystem’s economics.
Standard Chartered estimated that Arbitrum would receive about $5 million in AEP fees in September at Robinhood Chain’s prevailing run rate. Robinhood Chain generated an average of roughly $2.8 million in daily fee revenue during the first two weeks of September, while Arbitrum’s total monthly revenue was running at more than five times its level before the chain launched.
Kendrick said Robinhood Chain’s early performance could encourage additional financial companies to adopt the same infrastructure. “The early success of Robinhood Chain increases the probability that similar TradFi chains will also launch via the Arbitrum tech stack, in our view.”
“This raises the likelihood of future AEP fees. We also see significant potential for markets to re-rate ARB’s multiple to take it closer to Layer 1 multiples,” Kendrick added.
Standard Chartered’s valuation case therefore rests on two potential drivers: higher fundamental revenue as more external chains generate AEP fees and a possible increase in the valuation multiple investors assign to ARB. The bank’s thesis assumes Robinhood Chain will not remain an isolated deployment and that similar institutional chains could expand Arbitrum’s recurring revenue base.
Tokenization Forecast Underpins Institutional Adoption Thesis
Tokenization is another central component of Standard Chartered’s ARB forecast. The bank expects financial assets moving onchain to increase demand for infrastructure that can support institution-specific networks, creating an opportunity for Arbitrum to supply technology to banks, brokerages and other financial firms.
Standard Chartered reiterated its forecast that tokenized assets could grow from about $340 billion to $4 trillion by the end of 2028. Within that projection, tokenized equities alone could reach about $750 billion. A separate market measure cited alongside the forecast placed tokenized real-world assets at nearly $39 billion, reflecting a different scope rather than the same dataset used for Standard Chartered’s broader estimate.
The bank’s argument is that growth in tokenization could encourage traditional financial companies to launch their own blockchain infrastructure. External chains using Arbitrum’s stack would then generate revenue for the Arbitrum ecosystem through the AEP mechanism, giving the network an economic link to activity occurring outside its primary chain.
The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation’s work on tokenized equities was also cited as part of the institutional backdrop. Standard Chartered’s thesis therefore extends beyond existing crypto-native activity and incorporates the prospect of established financial-market infrastructure increasingly using blockchain-based systems.
Standard Chartered nevertheless identified several risks to the forecast. Kendrick cited slower-than-expected asset tokenization and “more competition from alternate blockchains” as factors that could reduce Arbitrum’s expected opportunity. Rival infrastructure could win institutional deployments even if the broader market for tokenized assets continues to expand.
ARB’s lack of direct value accrual is another risk identified by the bank. Growth in Arbitrum ecosystem revenue does not necessarily create a direct mechanism through which every dollar generated flows to ARB holders, meaning stronger network economics would still need to translate into higher token valuation for Standard Chartered’s forecast to hold.
Regulatory uncertainty in the United States also remains part of the bank’s risk framework. Kendrick cited pending rules affecting digital assets and tokenized securities, including the CLARITY Act, which had not been passed when Standard Chartered released its forecast.
Standard Chartered’s ARB call is therefore based on a multiyear revenue and adoption model rather than a short-term market move. The forecast assumes that tokenization expands, more traditional financial companies build chains using Arbitrum technology, AEP revenue rises and markets ultimately assign ARB a higher valuation as the ecosystem’s economics grow.
This article has been refined and enhanced by ChatGPT.
