USD
Robinhood Expands Prediction Markets as Polymarket Volume Drops After World Cup
Crypto.com deal advances as trading activity diverges sharply between major prediction-market platforms
TL;DR
- Robinhood agreed to distribute Crypto.com’s OG.com event contracts and take minority stakes in both businesses.
- Polymarket’s August trading activity fell sharply after the World Cup surge, while Kalshi retained substantially more volume.
- Investor interest remains strong despite slower trading, while both Kalshi and Polymarket continue to face legal challenges.
Trade smarter on Jupiter, Solana’s leading DEX built for fast execution and deep liquidity.
Swap tokens at competitive rates, route across multiple liquidity sources automatically, and access perpetuals, DCA, and advanced trading tools — all in one place!
Robinhood Markets is expanding its prediction-market business through a multi-year agreement with Crypto.com as trading activity across the sector cools from its World Cup highs. Robinhood agreed on September 8, 2026, to offer OG.com yes-or-no event contracts through its app and acquire minority stakes in Crypto.com and its recently separated prediction-markets business.
Crypto.com recently separated OG.com into its own company, with Robinhood beginning distribution of OG.com contracts the same day. Robinhood’s investment amount was not shared. Citadel Securities’ July investments provide recent valuation benchmarks, valuing Crypto.com at $15 billion and OG.com at $5 billion.
JB Mackenzie, Robinhood’s Vice President, said the partnership would help Robinhood provide customers with better pricing and a broader range of contracts. The expansion comes as football season begins and U.S. midterm elections approach, two areas identified as potential sources of event-contract activity.
Prediction markets have already developed into a significant Robinhood business. Event-contract revenue rose more than tenfold from a year earlier to $156 million during the second quarter, while a record 13.6 billion contracts changed hands, also more than 10 times the year-earlier level. Robinhood’s total net revenue reached an all-time high of $1.31 billion for the quarter, a 32% year-over-year increase.
Competition is also expanding. Combined 2026 trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket has exceeded $130 billion, while Meta and major sportsbooks FanDuel and DraftKings are also moving into prediction markets.
Polymarket volume falls while Kalshi holds most of its summer activity
Polymarket experienced the sharper post-World Cup slowdown. Data compiled by The Block showed a substantial difference between Polymarket and Kalshi across the summer, with the contraction concentrated primarily on Polymarket’s core platform.
Polymarket’s combined August volume was about 35% below the prior month as the World Cup-driven trading surge faded. Kalshi’s corresponding decline was roughly 4%, leaving it processing close to five times Polymarket’s monthly volume based on the same figures.
DeFiLlama tracking showed the pullback extending into September, with weekly industry trading volume running at around $4 billion. Activity during the World Cup had accelerated dramatically, rising from about $65 million at the beginning of July to a $5.6 billion peak by July 22 as football brought first-time users onto multiple platforms.
Investor demand for Polymarket has remained strong despite lower turnover. Donald Trump Jr.’s venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, was reported as leading a $1 billion funding round valuing Polymarket at $21 billion, a 40% increase from the roughly $15 billion valuation it carried earlier in the year.
Legal disputes continue as prediction markets draw larger financial firms
Baltimore sued Kalshi and Polymarket in August 2026, arguing that the businesses were operating unlicensed sports-betting operations. The case was among several lawsuits facing the two prediction-market platforms.
Kalshi is separately defending a lawsuit from New York Attorney General Letitia James. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission invoked emergency powers to keep Kalshi operating in New York as that dispute continued.
Robinhood’s prediction-market expansion is occurring alongside growth in its blockchain and tokenized-stock businesses. The network’s cited operating figures include distinct fee and revenue measurements that should be treated separately.
Bernstein maintained an “Outperform” rating on Robinhood stock. Arbitrum, Robinhood’s technology provider, receives the remaining portion of blockchain fees after Robinhood’s share.
On-chain tracker EmberCN put Robinhood Chain’s cumulative revenue at $42.58 million, or 17,171 ETH, during its first 70 days. That translated to roughly $608,000 in average daily revenue since launch.
Robinhood’s tokenized-stock program has also drawn criticism from an issuer whose shares are represented through the products. AMC Entertainment’s CEO Adam Aron called Robinhood tokenized stocks linked to AMC shares “outrageous,” saying they had no affiliation with AMC. Robinhood had refused to withdraw them.
Crypto.com, meanwhile, is working toward an initial public offering. Kris Marszalek, the company’s CEO, said no timing has been set.
This article has been refined and enhanced by ChatGPT.
